Information cascades
Model how one article, data point, or public statement might change the beliefs of different participant groups.
Prediction market AI
Use prediction market AI to inspect beliefs, catalysts, and resolution risk.
MiroFish helps researchers model competing narratives around forecast markets, then turn the simulation into questions worth testing with real evidence.
MiroFish supports scenario research only. It does not guarantee market outcomes and does not provide financial advice.
Prediction markets move when beliefs update
A market question can change when participants see new evidence, when a narrative becomes easier to explain, or when resolution criteria create uncertainty.
MiroFish can simulate participants with different incentives so you can inspect which arguments are driving belief updates and which assumptions are fragile.
Useful simulation angles
Contrarian thesis
Ask simulated agents to attack the consensus case and expose missing evidence or overconfident assumptions.
Resolution risk
Inspect wording, timing, source standards, and edge cases that could make the market settle differently than expected.
How to turn the report into action
Use the report to decide which claim needs real verification next. The output should help you collect better data, not replace data. When the simulation surfaces disagreement, treat that disagreement as the research agenda.
Updated: 2026-06-23.