Information cascades
Model how one piece of news can spread through trader communities and alter perceived probability.
MiroFish Polymarket
Prediction markets are not only about odds. They are also about evidence, attention, belief updates, social proof, and how participants react to new information.
Model how one piece of news can spread through trader communities and alter perceived probability.
Stress-test the strongest arguments against the current market consensus.
Explore confusion around wording, timing, evidence standards, and ambiguous outcomes.