Domain owner
Checks whether actors and constraints match reality.
Policy Impact Simulation
Policy Impact Simulation for evidence-led scenario rehearsal
Use MiroFish when policy effects across affected groups needs more than a one-shot answer. MiroFish uses seed material, named actors, reaction rounds, and structured reports; treat every run as decision support, not a guaranteed prediction.
Operating facts
Keep the limits visible before opening the console.
WorkflowMiroFish uses seed material, graph context, simulated policy option and affected groups, interaction rounds, and structured reports for policy impact simulation.
Decision boundaryA policy impact simulation run is decision support, not a guaranteed prediction.
Useful inputThe first useful policy impact simulation run needs policy option, affected groups, tradeoffs, timing, constraints, and the strongest contrary signal.
Scenario angle
The useful question is where policy effects across affected groups breaks.
For policy impact simulation, the page is worth its own route because the reader needs a bounded rehearsal around policy option, affected groups, tradeoffs. Start by asking which role can change the story first, then keep that role visible through the report review.
Human review
Give reviewers a concrete job.
Evidence owner
Checks whether the source packet supports the strongest claims.
Decision owner
Decides which branch changes the plan.
Validation plan
Turn output into real checks.
Interview
Ask policy option whether the strongest assumption is real.
Evidence pull
Refresh facts that may have changed since the source packet was written.
Rerun
Change one assumption around policy effects across affected groups and compare the new branch map with the original.
Evidence choice
Pick source material that can be challenged later.
The first run should include policy option, affected groups, tradeoffs, timing, constraints, and the strongest contrary signal. If a source is old, ambiguous, or politically loaded, mark it before running policy impact simulation so the report does not treat a weak claim as settled.
Boundary
This is rehearsal, not measurement.
Policy Impact Simulation in MiroFish can expose plausible reactions and research questions, but it cannot replace recruited participants, live market behavior, expert review, legal review, medical advice, financial advice, or accountable judgment.
Workflow
Move from brief to review in four deliberate steps.
Frame policyFrame policy effects across affected groups with one decision boundary.
Build anBuild an actor graph for Policy option, Affected groups, Tradeoffs.
Run reactionRun reaction rounds and watch for affected groups changing the interpretation of policy effects across affected groups.
Question theQuestion the report and check policy option against tradeoffs before treating the branch as useful.
Outside check
Leave with one verification move, not a pile of guesses.
The best next step after a policy impact simulation run is to check policy option against tradeoffs before treating the branch as useful. That keeps the simulation useful without pretending it measured the real world.
Branches
Test three paths instead of asking for one verdict.
Base pathpolicy effects across affected groups follows the expected story.
Friction pathaffected groups reframes the decision and slows adoption.
Surprise pathaffected groups changing the interpretation of policy effects across affected groups becomes the dominant interpretation.
Review owner
Name the person who can say the branch is weak.
Before using policy impact simulation output, assign one reviewer to challenge policy option, one to challenge affected groups, and one to decide whether tradeoffs changes the next action.
FAQ
Policy Impact Simulation FAQ
What should I prepare for policy impact simulation?
Prepare the decision boundary, source notes, actor roles, known objections, timing, and the signals that would change the result.
Can policy impact simulation replace real evidence?
No. Use it to generate hypotheses, pressure points, and validation questions, then confirm important claims with real data or accountable review.
What does MiroFish return?
A structured report with reaction paths, weak assumptions, evidence gaps, and follow-up questions you can challenge.
When should I rerun it?
Rerun after changing one important assumption, such as the actor list, timing window, evidence strength, or public message.
Next paths